Economic Insights

image showing rising home prices trend

Why Homes Feel Less Affordable: Prices Running Ahead of Paychecks

U.S. home prices have surged 47% since 2019, while household incomes rose only 22%, leaving millions priced out of homeownership. Even as mortgage rates ease near 6.3%, affordability remains at record lows, with coastal and Sun Belt metros hardest hit and only a few Midwest cities still within reach for median-income buyers.

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Row of houses for sale, no homebuyers

Where Have All the Homebuyers Gone?

Over the last several years, the U.S. housing market has seen a sharp decline in buyer activity. In May from 2016 to 2022 (except 2020), over five million homes were sold at an annualized rate. In contrast, May 2025 saw just four million sales (NAR). This drop is not limited to first-time buyers—repeat buyers are also pulling back from the market. So, where have all the buyers gone?

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Q3-2025 Quarterly Economic & Housing Market Update

The strong inflation reading for June was largely due to higher shelter and food prices, as well as goods that are more prone to higher tariffs. The shelter category of the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which includes housing costs, continued to be a significant and persistent driver of overall inflation. The shelter index increased 3.8% over the last year. However, there are emerging indicators that housing cost pressures may be easing.

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Q2-2025 Quarterly Economic & Housing Market Update

While the March 2025 Consumer Price Index shows a welcome easing of overall inflation to 2.4%, the persistently high 4.0% year-over-year increase in shelter costs remains a significant obstacle for housing affordability. This sustained rise in housing expenses continues to strain household budgets and complicate the decision for many potential homebuyers in the current market.

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Golden Gate Bridge view of San Francisco

Will San Francisco’s technology sector lead the housing market recovery?

The AI industry is flourishing, resulting in an expected real estate demand increase. However, Housing prices in San Francisco are still unaffordable. It remains unclear whether the housing market will improve in a big way, despite VeroFORECAST predicting a 3.6% drop in housing prices over the next 12 months in the city.

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