Key Points
- 37th quarter in a row that VeroFORECAST has shown average appreciation throughout the US housing market.
- Limited housing supply and recovering employment create a favorable environment for price gains across the country.
- Artificially low interest rates spurred by the Federal Reserve is one key factor resulting in frenzied homebuying.
- The 10 hottest markets have double-digit appreciation values above 13%.
SANTA ANA, Calif., October 12, 2021—Today Veros® Real Estate Solutions, an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, released its Q3 2021 VeroFORECASTSM data that anticipates home prices will appreciate on average 7% for the next twelve months. The VeroFORECAST evaluates home prices in the nation’s 100 most-populated markets. Veros is committed to the data science of predicting home value based on rigorous analysis of the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic, social, and geographic variables as they pertain to home value. This data-driven approach indicates that many of the top-performing cities are trending upwards at a double-digit rate.
“Veros continues to accurately predict robust appreciation throughout the overall housing market, which will remain solid and steady well into 2022,” said Darius Bozorgi, CEO of Veros Real Estate Solutions. “The continued year-over-year increase is heavily driven by strong markets in the Western United States. Four of the highest-performing markets are located in Idaho where in-migration continues to fuel housing demand.”
“Market fundamentals such as declining unemployment and low interest rates continue to keep house prices trending upward,” said Eric Fox, Veros Real Estate Solutions Chief Economist. “A limited supply of homes for sale and below-average new housing construction in recent years has fueled the red-hot market. Despite strong signals of upward inflation pressure, the Federal Reserve seems determined to keep interest rates low. Although we expect some upward pressure on interest rates, they are likely to remain low into 2022. This historically low interest rate environment in conjunction with numerous other factors is pointing to a continued robust housing market.”
While some other national residential forecasting groups have said, or are now saying, the US is in a “housing bubble” that will burst or that the rate of appreciation is set to drastically reduce to low single digits or even depreciate over the upcoming 12 months, Veros continues to disagree with this assessment. As set forth in its recent quarterly projections, Veros does not believe that present conditions resemble conditions that were present during the housing bubble of 2007-2008.
Cities in Idaho now occupy the top four spots on the list of strongest performing markets during the next year, cementing the state’s lock on the Top 10 in 2022. Phoenix holds down the #5 spot and is the largest metro area in the Top 10. Three cities in Utah occupy the next 3 spots with a newcomer to the list, Spartanburg, SC, as number 9. San Diego, which is usually recognized as a hot housing market, rounds out the Top 10. With the exception of Spartanburg, cities in the West, again, occupy the majority of the Top 10 metro areas.
The 10 Strongest-Performing Markets Over Next 12 Months
| Rank | Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) | Forecast Q3-2021 - Q3 - 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | COEUR D'ALENE, ID | 16.2% |
| 2 | BOISE CITY, ID | 14.6% |
| 3 | IDAHO FALLS, ID | 15.1% |
| 4 | POCATELLO, ID | 14.5% |
| 5 | PHOENIX-MESA-CHANDLER, AZ | 14.0% |
| 6 | SALT LAKE CITY, UT | 14.0% |
| 7 | PROVO-OREM, UT | 13.9% |
| 8 | OGDEN-CLEARFIELD, UT | 13.8% |
| 9 | SPARTANBURG, SC | 13.6% |
| 10 | SAN DIEGO-CHULA VISTA-CARLSBAD, CA | 13.1% |
Of the 100 most-populated markets, the two least-performing markets again this quarter are forecast to be in Texas oil country – Odessa and Midland – although other markets in Texas are expected to do very well. Louisiana occupies four spots in the 10 least-performing markets, with Illinois and North Dakota each with two cities on the list. All of these markets are forecast to still appreciate slightly – less than 1% to well in the 3% range.
The 10 Least-Performing Markets Over Next 12 Months
| Rank | Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) | Forecast Q3 2021 – Q3 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ODESSA, TX | 0.8% |
| 2 | MIDLAND, TX | 1.5% |
| 3 | LAKE CHARLES, LA | 2.0% |
| 4 | HOUMA-THIBODAUX, LA | 2.6% |
| 5 | DECATUR, IL | 2.8% |
| 6 | LAFAYETTE, LA | 3.1% |
| 7 | GRAND FORKS, ND-MN | 3.4% |
| 8 | SHREVEPORT-BOSSIER CITY, LA | 3.5% |
| 9 | SPRINGFIELD, IL | 3.6% |
| 10 | BISMARCK, ND | 3.7% |
Download the Q3 2021 – Q3 2022 VeroFORECAST results as a PDF infographic or as an infographic image. Download the 10 Strongest-Performing Markets graphic only. Download the 10 Least-Performing Markets graphic only.
VeroFORECAST Methodology
The quarterly VeroFORECAST reports to clients by subscription and to industry media in a summary overview. The current report is based on data from 328 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), including 16,840 ZIP codes, 1004 counties, and 82% of US residents. The report is a projected increase 12-months forward.
Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions
This information is intended for use by the media for economic reporting and should only be used for physical or digital publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Veros Real Estate Solutions. The company name should appear with the first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the company name must be visible on the screen or website. For questions, analysis, interpretation of the data, or permission to reproduce, contact Brian Fluhr at BFluhr@veros.com.
About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling
Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has 30 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published numerous technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions
A mortgage technology innovator since 2001, Veros is a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. The firm combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics, and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated solutions that control risk and increase profits throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination to servicing and securitization. Veros’ services include automated valuation, fraud and risk detection; portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is the primary architect and technology provider of the GSEs’ Uniform Collateral Data Portal® (UCDP®). Veros also works closely with the FHA to support its Electronic Appraisal Delivery (EAD) portal. The company is also making the home buying process more efficient for our nation’s Veterans through its appraisal management work with the Department of Veterans Affairs. For more information, visit www.veros.com or call 866-458-3767.
Media Contact
Brian Fluhr
Vice President of Marketing
bfluhr@veros.com or communications@veros.com
Media Source: U.S. Home Price Forecast Will Remain Strong into 2022
