As of October 2025, around 52% of homeowners with a mortgage have rates below 4%. This is a major contributor to the tight supply shown around the country. Paired with this, the U.S. Housing Market is experiencing weak demand, which results in the ‘housing stalemate.’
In the sixth episode of RiskWire: On the House, Veros’ Chief Economist, Eric Fox, and Sr. Research Economist, Reena Agrawal, explore this relationship that serves as one of the main contributors to home prices not falling. They touch on specific factors including affordability, insurance premiums, lack of new construction, and much more.
Key takeaways from the episode include:
- There has been a 52% increase in the median U.S. house price from 2019 to 2025. Because of this increase, we are seeing weak demand due to homebuyers struggling with affordability.
- Buyers also struggle with affordability because of the 30% increase (2019-2022) in qualifying income for first-time buyers, as well as a 70% increase (2020-2025) in property insurance premiums.
- Many current homeowners have “Golden Handcuff” mortgage rates around 4%, and are reluctant to trade up for a new mortgage at the current rate (~6.3%)
- We are presently dealing with a low rate of new construction, as housing starts are less than half of what they were in 2007-2008, thus contributing to the tight supply.
Looking for a more detailed summary on why home prices aren’t falling? Tune into episode six, today: Webcast & Interviews – RiskWire, powered by Veros
Additionally, don’t forget to check out RiskWire: On the House on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube Podcasts.
