Economic Insights

Insights and Perspectives on U.S. Housing Economies and Property Markets

Veros Economic Insights provides our recent forecasts, analysis, and articles for an up-to-date picture of the U.S. housing market. 

OPINION

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Inflation is going to be here for a while …

We said early in 2021 that Inflation was going to be a problem in the future because of the Fed’s lack of timely action in increasing interest rates and reducing the pace of bond purchases.

The Fed and other officials early on indicated that there would be no inflation, then said risks for inflation were weighted to the upside, then once it hit called it transitory, and then recently when it did not abate quickly stated it had peaked.

Friday’s increase in the inflation rate to 8.6% was a new 40-year high showing there are no signs of things letting up.

Though many official forecasts from reputable sources show that Inflation will be in the 3% range over the next 12 months, we do not foresee such a sharp reduction. Rather, we see inflation as strong throughout the remainder of the year with some slight softening as we enter 2023 to produce an annual inflation rate in the upcoming 12 months more in the 6% to 6.5% range. Assuming that the Fed chooses to continue to increase interest rates to combat this magnitude of inflation, mortgage rates will likely drift higher than they are today which will keep the housing market from appreciating as quickly as it has been.

Economic Indicators

Mortgage Rate
May 2022
5.27%
Inflation
May 2022
8.6%
Housing Starts​
May 2022
1.55 Million​
Housing Inventory
May 2022
1.16 Million
Unemployment Rate
May 2022
3.6%
Hourly Earnings
May 2022
$31.95

HOUSING OUTLOOK

View of Phoenix, AZ

Will Increasing Interest Rates Finally Slow Down the Housing Market in 2022? Veros Predicts Not Likely

Today’s Q1 2022 VeroFORECAST report anticipates home prices will appreciate on average 7.1% for the next 12 months. Veros’ VeroFORECAST evaluates home prices in over 330 of the nation’s largest housing markets and reveals the cities expected to be the Strongest- or Least-performing metros in America.

Read More →

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