2017 Forecast Signals at Strength & Stability Despite Expected Upticks in Interest Rates and Inflation
Jan 04, 2017
VeroFORECASTSM shows continued modest gains and geo-polarization as WA, OR, & CO Dominate Again
Although we expect to see interest rates increasing and inflation ramping up, the overall labor market is expected to remain strong. These effects will essentially offset each other, and allow the overall national forecast to remain strong, and consistent with what has been predicted and observed in previous forecast updates,
- says Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling at Veros.
Santa Ana, Calif. – Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros) reports that residential market values will continue their overall upward trend during the next 12 months, with overall annual forecast appreciation of +3.7% (up slightly from last quarter’s +3.5%). The insight comes from the company’s most recent VeroFORECASTSM, a quarterly national real estate market forecast for the 12-month period ending December 1, 2017.
“Although we expect to see interest rates increasing and inflation ramping up, the overall labor market is expected to remain strong. These effects will essentially offset each other, and allow the overall national forecast to remain strong, and consistent with what has been predicted and observed in previous forecast updates,” says Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling at Veros.
Interestingly, Washington, Oregon, and Colorado monopolized the top positions in all of 2016, and continue to hold 9 of the top 10 markets in the forecast for the next 12 months. Seattle and Denver lead the way in the #1 and #2 spots with forecast appreciation of 10.9% and 10.2%, respectively. Bend, OR, Portland, OR, and Bremerton, WA round out the top five markets, and the northwest states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Colorado represent 17 of the top 25 forecast markets demonstrating continued record-setting geographic concentration.
On trend with last quarter’s forecast, the weakest five performing markets are expected to depreciate between 1% to 2.5%. “Thus, even these worst performing markets won’t see a significant drop,” says Fox. The worst performing market this quarter is expected to be Poughkeepsie, NY (- 2.5%). Binghampton, NY (-1.9%), Atlantic City (-1.8%), Cumberland, MD (-1.7%), and Vineland, NJ (-1.3%) rounds out the weakest five. Record geographic concentration also persists on the weaker end of the forecast spectrum with 6 of the 10 weakest markets residing in New Jersey, the Hudson Valley region of New York, and Connecticut.
In comparison to last quarter, VeroFORECAST predicts continued softening in the once-hot markets of South Florida and the Bay Area. Markets such as San Francisco and San Jose are down again by 1% to forecasts in the 5% range. Likewise, South Florida markets such as Miami and Fort Myers are down another 1% to forecast at the 4% range.
These once-hot markets are now falling to more ‘middle-of-the pack’ metro areas in terms of expected appreciation. In addition, the number of depreciating markets has been cut in half from roughly 7% during last quarter’s update — to only a scant 4%.
This is primarily because the markets in portions of the country such as Connecticut or New Jersey have gone from slightly depreciating in previous updates to slightly appreciating in this report.
Additional forecasts and infographics for U.S. markets available to the press upon request.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions
Mortgage technology innovators since 2001, Veros is a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. The firm combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics, and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated solutions that control risk and increase profits throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination to servicing and securitization. Veros’ services include automated valuation, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. For more information, visit www.veros.com or call 866-458-3767.
About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling:
Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has more than 22 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published more than 20 technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.
866-458-3767, option 6