Major Markets Reversing Course as Overall Forecast Market Strength Weakens
Jul 11, 2016
VeroFORECASTSM showing significant weakening in Bay Area; strengthening in Boston
Our Q2 VeroFORECAST still shows general market strength for the U.S. residential real estate market, but the slight softening we saw in last quarter’s report has continued...
Santa Ana, Calif. – June 30, 2016 – Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros), a leader in enterprise risk management, collateral valuation services and predictive analytics, reports residential market values will continue their upward trend during the next 12 months, though the pace of acceleration is slowing. The annual forecast is expected to decrease modestly to +3.5% following the prior quarter's projection of +4.2%. The percentage of markets forecast to appreciate is holding steady at 92%.
This insight comes from the company's most recent VeroFORECASTSM, a quarterly national real estate market forecast for the 12-month period ending June 1, 2017.
"Our Q2 VeroFORECAST still shows general market strength for the U.S. residential real estate market, but the slight softening we saw in last quarter's report has continued," says Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling at Veros. "This weakening is being driven by some specific markets which are experiencing sharp increases in housing inventory. Examples include the San Francisco Bay Area where appreciation is forecast to be 7% over the next 12 months, a figure which is down significantly from previous double-digit appreciation forecasts. Likewise, many Texas markets such as Midland, Odessa, El Paso, and San Angelo are forecast to be flat or depreciate slightly due to continued softness in oil-based economies."
The top forecast markets are showing appreciation in the 10% to 11% range with the Pacific Northwest and Colorado having a lock on the 8 of the top 10 forecast markets. Seattle, Wash. (+11.2%), Portland, Ore. (+11.1%), Denver, Colo. (+9.9%) and other metropolitan areas in these same vicinities appear very strong over the next year. These markets have robust economies, growing populations, and no more than a two month's supply of homes. Significantly notable is the forecast strengthening of the Boston market which is up sharply to +7.4% due to reductions in inventory and unemployment.
The worst performing market is expected to be Kingston, NY, with forecast 2.5% depreciation. The other bottom five markets include Ocean City, N.J. (-2.1%), Kingsport, Tenn. (-1.9%), and both Atlantic City, N.J. and San Angelo, Texas with forecast depreciation at -1.4%. A review of the bottom 25 markets this quarter so even the worst performing markets are only forecast to depreciate between 1% to 2%. The majority of the markets within the bottom 25 are depreciating less than 1% indicating the market is in a generally stable place.
Additional forecast data and infographic is available to the press upon request.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions
Veros Real Estate Solutions, a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, uniquely combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated decisioning solutions. Veros products and services are optimizing millions of profitable decisions throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination through servicing and securitization. Veros provides solutions to control risk and increase profits including automated valuations, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. For more information, visit www.veros.com or call (866) 458-3767.
About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling:
Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has more than 22 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published more than 20 technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.