Veros Real Estate Market Forecast Projects Continued National Strength and Regional Concentration for Top 10 Market Positions
Apr 11, 2016
VeroFORECASTSM predicts overall appreciation, yet significant weakening in oil & gas markets
...+4.2% appreciation rate continues to demonstrate national strength for the next year
Santa Ana, Calif. – Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros), an award-winning industry leader in enterprise risk management, collateral valuation services and predictive analytics, today reports that residential market values will continue their overall upward trend during the next 12 months, with overall annual forecast appreciation decreasing only slightly to +4.2% (from the prior quarter’s forecast of 4.4%) and shows 94% of markets forecast to appreciate.
This insight comes from the company’s most recent VeroFORECAST, a quarterly national real estate market forecast for the 12-month period ending March 1, 2017.
“Our VeroFORECAST update for the first quarter shows some slight softening in the U.S. residential real estate market, but a +4.2% appreciation rate continues to demonstrate national strength for the next year” says Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling for Veros. “The top forecast markets are all showing appreciation in the 9% to 10% range with the Pacific Northwest, Colorado, and the Bay Area holding all spots in the Top 10 forecast markets in the U.S. Most of these markets have strong economies, growing populations, and month’s supply of homes around 2.0 months or less.” Fox continues, “What is perhaps most significant about this update is the absence from this list of markets being impacted by the slowdown in the oil and gas industries. For example, Midland and Odessa are barely expected to appreciate in the next 12 months while Houston and Bismarck are expected to have relative low appreciation rates of 4% and 3%, respectively. All of these markets routinely had 9% or 10% forecast appreciation two years ago.”
“The good news is that even those markets which are expected to perform poorly are still only expected to see minor single-digit depreciation or flat market conditions,” says Fox. “The weakest markets are characterized by those losing population and having relatively high unemployment rates. All of our Bottom 5 markets, for example, have been declining in population for decades with Atlantic City expected to perform the worst with 2.8% depreciation.” The worst performing markets are in New Jersey, the Hudson Valley region of New York, Connecticut, and in relatively small metro areas of the Midwest and Southeast. These Midwest and Southeast markets are often those that have experienced manufacturing plant closures with little new industry to replace the jobs that were lost.
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Additional forecasts and infographics for U.S. markets available to the press upon request.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions
Veros Real Estate Solutions, a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, uniquely combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated decisioning solutions. Veros products and services are optimizing millions of profitable decisions throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination through servicing and securitization. Veros provides solutions to control risk and increase profits including automated valuations, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is headquartered in Santa Ana, Calif. For more information, please visit www.veros.com or call (866) 458-3767.
About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling:
Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has more than 22 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published more than 20 technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.