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Real Estate Forecast Shows Slip, Then Slow Recovery

Mar 29, 2011

National residential home price forecast shows small decline, but overall signs of steady stabilization.

Santa Ana, CA – March 29, 2011 - Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros), an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, has announced the real estate market forecast for March 1, 2011 through March 1, 2012. According to data calculated by Veros' real estate market forecast product, VeroFORECAST, Anchorage, Alaska holds the lead position for the strongest home price appreciation having made a significant move from its rank in tenth position in the previous quarter.

The strong areas prevailing in the forecast span the map showing Texas and Louisiana in top positions, before stretching northeast to include Buffalo, New York and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Additional areas showing some strength include Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota and South Dakota. Signs of life are also present in areas of Hawaii, Colorado and the Washington D.C. metro area.

Projected Five Strongest Markets*

  1. Anchorage, AK 3.8%
  2. Amarillo, TX 3.0%
  3. Shreveport/Bossier City, LA 2.7%
  4. Buffalo/Niagra Falls, NY 2.4%
  5. Pittsburgh, PA 2.3%

Projected Five Weakest Markets*

  1. Reno/Sparks, NV - 6.4%
  2. Boise City/Nampa, ID - 6.1%
  3. Portland/Beaverton, OR/Vancouver, WA - 5.4%
  4. Orlando/Kissimmee, FL - 5.2%
  5. Las Vegas/Paradise, NV - 5.1%

The 12-month forecast indicates that the market is maintaining its current feeble state. From Veros’ national home price index perspective, the needle has dropped from - 0.7 percent to -1.3 percent indicating that the market is still in a corrective state and not fully on the road to recovery. However, signs of extreme double-digit depreciation are all but gone from the current forecast, as are any markets providing significant downward momentum, as was the norm in the forecasts of 2009.

“The market is showing distinct signs of weakness still. While no individual market is providing a dead weight to the national forecast, it’s also important to note that no one market is showing gains significant enough to pull the national average up out of the red,” said Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling for Veros.

Strengthening Markets

The most noticeable trend among VeroFORECAST’s top performing markets is the prevalence of interest rates as a primary influence in nine of the top 10 markets. “Many of the markets appearing in the upper ranks this quarter are markets in which the local industries are either reviving or at least maintaining,” said Fox.

“While this of course is relative to the economy as a whole, the forecast indicates that buyers in markets with a better sense of security may be motivated to take advantage of interest rates, which are speculated to increase as this year progresses. Those in less stable markets simply can’t be pushed off the fence by the movement of a percentage point here and there.”

Weakening Markets

In eight out of 10 weakest markets, unemployment is a significant driver. “Many of the areas appearing in the bottom of the forecast are areas that are highly dependent on less stable industries such as travel and tourism as in the case of Las Vegas, Reno or Orlando,” said Fox.

Available housing inventory appears sporadically among the bottom market influencers; however it is noticeably less impactful on the forecast than in previous updates. Florida and Nevada continue to lead the weakest areas with six out of the 10 bottom markets. Additionally, the Pacific Northwest shows some signs of weakening. “In order to enter a stabilization phase, steady improvements in unemployment rates, interest rates and overall affordability are going to be major forces in tipping the scales in an upward direction,” said Fox.

VeroFORECAST uses advanced analytics and micro-market data to achieve highly accurate results, and is utilized by economists, statisticians and business leaders as a key resource for forecasting and strategic planning due to its consistent strength and accuracy over the past eight years.

*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in major metro areas (typically greater than 500,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.

About VeroFORECAST

VeroFORECAST provides forecasts on the national real estate market with the capacity to segment results by property types, by three distinct pricing tiers – upper, middle and entry-level – and by metro area, county or zip code. The forecast utilizes more than 50 critical decisioning factors in its forecast analytics to develop reliable market trend predictions covering more than 900 counties, more than 300 metro areas and nearly 14,000 zip codes. Key factors range from interest, unemployment and inflation rates, to housing inventory levels and an array of economic and geographic trends. Veros engineered VeroFORECAST in response to demand for more focused and useful reports featuring improved methods and emphasizing more localized data in its analytics.

About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling:

Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has more than 22 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published 20 technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.

Additional forecasts for other U.S. markets available to the
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About Veros Real Estate Solutions

Veros Real Estate Solutions, a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, uniquely combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated decisioning solutions. Veros products, systems and services, integrated into industry leading companies, are now optimizing millions of profitable decisions throughout the mortgage industry from loan origination through servicing and the secondary markets. Veros provides solutions to control risk and increase profits including automated valuations, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation property valuation workflow and risk management platforms. Veros is headquartered in Santa Ana, Calif.


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