40% of Major Metro Areas Can Expect To See Property Appreciation In 2011
Dec 22, 2010
San Diego home prices to rise 3.5%; key markets in Florida
and Nevada to decpreciate 6-7%
Santa Ana, CA - December 22, 2010 - The San Diego area regained its lead position for the strongest home price appreciation over the next 12 months in the most recent update to the U.S. real estate market forecast from Veros Real Estate Solutions, an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. Veros' U.S. real estate market forecast, VeroFORECAST, uses advanced analytics and micro-market data to achieve highly accurate results, and is utilized by economists, statisticians and business leaders as a key resource for forecasting and strategic planning due to its consistent strength and accuracy over the eight years the forecast has been available.
The forecast for December 2010 through December 2011 indicates that select markets in the U.S. can expect to witness 2.5-3.5% appreciation on home values over the next 12 months, including Washington State's tri-city area, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Fargo,North Dakota, and the Washington D.C. metro area. Florida, Reno, Nevada and Boise, Idaho will experience the nation's greatest depreciation rates in the coming 12 months, a trend which continues from prior periods.
Projected Five Strongest Markets*
San Diego / Carlsbad / San Marcos, CA +3.5%
Kennewick / Richland / Pasco, WA +3.4%
Pittsburgh, PA +2.7%
Fargo, ND-MN +2.6%
Washington / Arlington / Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV +2.5%
Projected Five Weakest Markets*
Reno / Sparks, NV -7.2%
Orlando / Kissimmee, FL -6.5%
Boise City / Nampa, ID -6.4%
Deltona / Daytona Beach / Ormond Beach, FL -6.3%
Port St. Lucie / Fort Pierce, FL -6.3%
The Central Plains and Texas continue to see positive appreciation compared to prior periods, with generally good forecasts in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma,South Dakota, North Dakota and Iowa. A strengthening trend is also spreading to the Midwest with encouraging numbers in parts of Mississippi, Kentucky, Illinois,Indiana and Wisconsin. San Diego, California continues its consistent pattern of staying among the nation's leaders in home value gains. "Smaller metro markets with populations less than 250,000 make up the majority of the better appreciating markets," says Eric Fox, Veros' vice president of statistical and economic modeling, crediting affordability factors.
The outlook for Florida remains weak, with six of the ten U.S. markets expecting the greatest depreciation. Other especially weak forecasts include Reno / Sparks, Nevada,California's interior, much of Idaho, and western portions of Washington andOregon.
"It is noteworthy that depreciating forecasts remain much better than those from a year ago with nothing worse than 7% depreciation," Fox observes. "A year ago, we were seeing some markets with depreciation rates in the double-digit range."
Approximately 40 percent of all major metro areas are forecast to appreciate over the next 12 months, even though appreciation is expected to be mild. Looking out to the 12 to 24 month horizon, nearly 60 percent of markets are expected to appreciate," he says, "So while things aren't happening rapidly, the forecast indicates they are getting better."
VeroFORECAST provides forecasts on the national real estate market with the capacity to segment results by property types, by three distinct pricing tiers - upper, middle and entry-level - and by metro area, county and zip code. The forecast utilizes more than 50 critical decisioning factors in its forecast analytics to develop reliable market trend predictions covering more than 900 counties, more than 300 metro areas and nearly 14,000 zip codes. Key factors range from interest, unemployment and inflation rates, to housing inventory levels and an array of economic and geographic trends. Veros engineered VeroFORECAST in response to demand for more focused, more useful reports featuring improved methods and emphasizing more localized data sources in its analytics.
*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in major metro areas (typically greater than 500,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.
About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling:
Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has more than 22 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published 20 technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.
Additional forecasts for other U.S. markets available to the press upon request Click here
About Veros Real Estate Solutions:
Veros Real Estate Solutions, a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, uniquely combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated decisioning solutions. Veros products and services are optimizing millions of profitable decisions throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination through servicing and securitization. Veros provides solutions to control risk and increase profits including automated valuations, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is headquartered in Santa Ana, California. To order the VeroFORECAST update or receive information on other Veros analytic products and systems, visit www.veros.com or call (866) 458-3767.