Veros U.S. Real Estate Forecast Shows Modest But Consistant Improvement In Several Key Markets
Mar 31, 2010
Veros' VeroFORECAST quarterly update shows improvements in some hard-hit markets, continued bad news for Florida
Santa Ana, CA - March 31, 2010 - Veros Real Estate Solutions, an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, has released its most recent update to its U.S. real estate market forecast, a report that uses advanced analytics and micro-market data to achieve highly accurate results. The company's VeroFORECAST product is utilized by economists, statisticians and business leaders all along the mortgage industry value chain as a key resource for forecasting and strategic planning due to its consistent strength and accuracy over the eight years the forecast has been available. The quarterly forecast update for March 2010 through March 2011 indicates gradual improvement of property value trends in some markets of key interest.
"More of California's coastal areas are showing modest signs of appreciation, with San Diego / Carlsbad / San Marcos leading with an expected appreciation of +3.4 percent" says Eric Fox, Veros' vice president of statistical and economic modeling. "Los Angeles and San Francisco are close behind, and were not among the top five in the last quarter. The Great Plains region including Texas remains steady," he notes. "Although there are no overwhelmingly strong appreciating forecasts among the larger metropolitan areas, the depreciating forecasts are noticeably milder than a year ago," he adds.
Projected Five Strongest Markets*
- San Diego / Carlsbad / San Marcos, CA +3.4%
- Los Angeles / Long Beach / Santa Ana, CA +3.1%
- Houston / Sugarland / Baytown, TX +3.0%
- San Francisco / Oakland / Fremont, CA +3.0%
- Amarillo, TX +2.7%
"Florida, Nevada and Michigan areas top the list of weaker markets still," Fox says. "Florida remains ground zero for the weakest home price forecasts in the U.S. although extreme declines of 20 or 25 percent are no longer expected since strong price corrections have already occurred." Of the list of the ten weakest markets, Fox notes that seven are in Florida, two are in Nevada and one is in Michigan.
Projected Five Weakest Markets*
- Deltona / Daytona Beach / Ormond Beach, FL -10.0%
- Palm Bay / Melbourne / Titusville, FL -8.9%
- Naples / Marco Island, FL -8.8%
- Orlando / Kissimmee, FL -8.7%%
- Port St. Lucie / Fort Pierce, FL -8.6%
Veros believes that emphasizing the local level keeps analysts more closely attuned to where real estate decisions are actually made. "That means getting down to more detailed levels of information to be as accurate as possible," Fox explains. To ensure their property forecasts are more meaningful and accurate, Veros segments forecasts by property type (single-family residence vs. townhouse/condo), by three distinct pricing tiers (upper, middle and entry-level) and by metro area, county and zip code. "This specific combination of forecast attributes makes Veros' predictive offerings more comprehensive, granular and accurate, enabling better business decisions than other commercially available reports," Fox says. "VeroFORECAST is intended to give users a competitive edge," he says, "and in today's market there is no substitute for accuracy derived from granular precision and solid analytics."
*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in major metro areas (typically greater than 500,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions:
Veros Real Estate Solutions, a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, uniquely combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated decisioning solutions. Veros products and services are optimizing millions of profitable decisions throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination through servicing and securitization. Veros provides solutions to control risk and increase profits including automated valuations, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is headquartered in Santa Ana, California. To order the VeroFORECAST update or receive information on other Veros analytic products and systems, visit www.veros.com or call (866) 458-3767.